After Assad: What’s Next for Syria and the Region?

December 8, 2024 marked a turning point in Syria’s history, as a coalition of rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took over the capital city of Damascus and other key regions, ending a half-century of Assad family rule. A resolution for the 13-year civil war had long proved elusive, but now that former President Bashar al-Assad and his family have fled to Russia, and amid the collapse of long-standing Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, a new chance for inclusive democratic governance has emerged. 

Despite HTS’s background as an Islamist group with links to al-Qaeda, its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has made gestures signaling the importance of dialogue and the drafting of a new constitution. However, deep distrust of HTS among the country’s minorities and broader impatience with the four-year timeline announced for elections could threaten the emergence of a unifying central authority in the country; jockeying for influence by regional neighbors could also impact Syria’s peaceful transition.

Will the fall of the Assad regime open the door for a new, inclusive, democratic Syria? What are some of the major pitfalls and challenges? What does Assad’s fall mean for the millions of Syrian refugees who have fled the country over the course of the civil war? What will happen to Assad himself now that he has been forced into exile? Will the former Syrian leader face trial for war crimes and human rights abuses? What role might the United States play in Syria’s transition, given its important relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces and the huge impact of U.S. economic sanctions on the country? Regionally, has Turkey emerged as the main beneficiary of Assad’s fall? And is Iran the biggest loser or will Russia’s loss of influence eventually prove greater? How are Gulf and other Arab states engaging with the new Syria following years of normalization of relations with the Assad regime?

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